Global Market Context
August 2024 delivered the kind of volatility typical for late summer — thinner liquidity, overreactions to data, and sudden shifts in sentiment.
Macroeconomic developments dominated forex trading:
United States: mixed inflation and labor data kept the Fed in “data-dependent” mode. Treasury yields swung between optimism and caution.
Eurozone: soft growth but cooling inflation pushed the ECB toward a dovish stance.
Japan: speculation about potential BoJ normalization met with hints of verbal intervention.
Commodities: rising oil prices supported CAD, while weaker Chinese demand kept AUD under pressure.
Elin Andersson: “August is a month where patience pays. I prefer waiting for confirmation — entering only after the market retests key levels.”
EUR / USD
What happened: The euro oscillated within its summer range. Every USD rebound on strong U.S. data met renewed selling in EUR/USD.
Key levels: support near the lower band of the range; resistance around 1.10.
Outlook: Direction depends on U.S. core inflation and ECB tone.
Elin: “My strategy is to fade the extremes — selling near resistance, buying near support, unless a breakout comes with strong volume.”
USD / JPY
What happened: The yen weakened as U.S. yields rose, with occasional spikes from intervention rumors.
Risk: sudden reversals after BoJ or MoF comments.
Outlook: mildly bullish for USD/JPY, but with high intervention risk.
Elin: “I prefer smaller positions or option spreads — one sharp headline can erase a week’s profit.”
GBP / USD
What happened: The pound stayed resilient thanks to sticky U.K. inflation, though upside momentum was limited.
Outlook: neutral to slightly bullish, depending on BoE–Fed divergence.
Elin: “When GBP rallies without support from gilt yields, that’s often the top.”
AUD / USD
What happened: The Aussie dollar remained highly sensitive to Chinese economic data. Rallies were short-lived.
Outlook: potential recovery if Chinese industrial demand improves; otherwise, still a sell-the-rally setup.
Elin: “I prefer to trade AUD via crosses like EUR/AUD — they’re cleaner than fighting the USD directly.”
USD / CAD
What happened: Crude oil near $83–85 helped stabilize the Canadian dollar.
Outlook: short-term bearish for USD/CAD as long as oil holds firm.
Elin: “Pullbacks into previous breakdown zones are great short entries — as long as oil stays bid.”
Scenarios for Late August – Early September
| Scenario | Trigger | Likely Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Stronger USD | Hotter U.S. inflation, hawkish Fed tone | EUR/USD ↓, USD/JPY ↑ |
| Risk-on, weaker USD | Softer CPI, Chinese recovery | EUR/USD ↑, AUD/USD ↑, USD/CHF ↓ |
| Japan shock | BoJ/MoF intervention | USD/JPY ↓ sharply, global risk-off |
Elin: “During macro-heavy weeks I cut position size in half and widen stops. The goal isn’t to be right — it’s to survive the volatility.”
Trade Ideas (for Educational Purposes)
Range strategy on EUR/USD: sell near resistance, buy near support.
USD/JPY: cautiously long with tight disaster stop.
USD/CAD: short on pullbacks while oil remains strong.
Key Events to Watch
U.S. CPI / PCE / NFP / ISM
ECB, BoE, BoJ speeches and minutes
China PMI, trade, and credit data
OPEC+ meetings and oil inventory reports
Conclusion
August 2024 brought the classic summer conditions: thin liquidity, extended wicks, and overreactions to headlines.
According to Elin Andersson, success in this environment depends on discipline, patience, and smaller position sizing.
“The big move will come when central banks return from summer mode,” she notes. “Until then, traders should focus on managing exposure, not chasing momentum.”
👉 Follow Nexa Level X for monthly forex analyses, trader insights, and real-world strategies.
